Is investing in residential real estate still a good bet? If so, how?

As September settles in and fall edges around the corner, standing on the back deck sipping a seltzer, you may be wondering, is what you’re seeing online—more price cuts, a few stale listings, and a strong rental market—add up to opportunity or to a trap? Your social feeds say “crash.” Your spreadsheet says “maybe.” Your gut remembers 2008. Yet you also know people will keep needing places to live; the question is not whether housing will be used, but whether this house in this market, at this price and mortgage you are seeing, will pay its way over time.

We’re going to break down the factual pros and cons, including what the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1) is doing for investors, a stable investment loan that can open doors otherwise shut to investors, securely, and let you be the judge. We’ll wrap up with some expert checklist of what to look for from your local market when investing.
Let’s start with the elephant in the room: is real estate crashing? The national picture says no—but it has slowed. In August 2025, active listings rose 20.9% year over year, the 22nd straight month of inventory gains and the fourth month above one million active listings; homes spent a median 60 days on market (+7 y/y), and 20.3% of listings had a price cut. Realtor.com calls it a gradual rebalancing and notes the national market is roughly balanced at five months of supply. Realtor On the closed-sales tape, Redfin reports a U.S. median sale price of $443,462 (+1.4% y/y) with homes sold –2.3% y/y—a slowdown, not a rout. Redfin Mortgage rates have eased from 2024 peaks; the average 30-year fixed touched ~6.58% on Aug. 14, 2025 (low of the year), and then fell again to 6.35% on Sept. 11, 2025, which can wake up fall demand—though affordability is still tight. Freddie Mac+1

What follows is a clear-eyed guide to investing in residential real estate in 2025. Part I explains new tax rules. Part II shows how to hunt value by city—plus a practical checklist and the history of social medias accuracy on calling the market (hint: flip a coin, which is more accurate than YouTube has been in the past 20 years since it’s inception in 2005).

Part I — Is The Market Stable?

No one wants to buy a lemon.
Many of us still carry the scars of the 2008 meltdown, which was a loose banking law crisis, along with a morally corrupt rating system ring. Banks started offering loans that did not verify income and/or assets, which prove a borrower’s ability to repay, and required little or no down payment. Anyone with a pulse and ID could get a loan. This drove-up values and created a very unstable market hidden beneath “A” paper ratings. After the last housing bust, to protect against this from every happening again, the Ability-to-Repay/Qualified Mortgage rule made it unlawful to fund a mortgage without first making a “reasonable, good-faith determination” of a consumer’s ability to repay. The bottom line: this meant documentation, verification, and a standardized set of underwriting factors. In practice, ATR/QM removed the oxygen that fed 2006–07 exotic lending referred to as sub-prime, which is one reason broad delinquencies remain low by long-run standards even after the rate shock. (For a plain-English statutory summary see the CFPB’s original rule brief.)
IN the short-term, this caused the market, and therefore valuations to slow way down. No longer would someone’s word, even a CPAs, be enough. Since 2010, you have to verify how the mortgage will be paid, whether through income, assets, or a rent-roll available on residential investment property. The loser the income qualification, the larger the down payment required, which no one walks away from so willy-nilly as in the mid-2000s.
IN recent years, we’ve seen the reintroduction of more ‘creative’ products, like the DSCR, but they follow this essential rule—proof of the ability to repay often accompanied with a larger downpayment. This in turn makes the market more stable by a long shot than 2008.

New Tax Benefits with OBBA

In July 2025, Congress enacted the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1). Among its business provisions, Section 70301 makes permanent 100% bonus depreciation under IRC §168(k) and sets effective dates tied to acquisition on or after Jan. 19, 2025 (with a one-time election allowing reduced percentages for assets placed in service in the first taxable year ending after that date). Congress.gov
This does mean you will need to have a cost segregation completed—which needs to be completed by a profession. In the proceed, components that typically get depreciated in 20 years or as few as five, such as appliances, dedicated electrical, certain cabinets/finishes can be deducted in the first year, and site/land improvements like fencing or paving from the 27.5-year depreciation can be moved to the 5-, 7-, or 15-year classes. The IRS’s Cost Segregation ATG sets the classification logic and defines “residential rental property” (27.5-year GDS; 80% of gross rental income from dwelling units). Day-to-day rental rules (depreciation, passive loss limits, recordkeeping) are in Publication 527, for your reference.


What does this mean in practical terms? If you can offset a tax bill or at least what you owe on your Schedule E income this year. You don’t have to wait.
Just a note as not to be confused with commercial property:


• QIP, “Qualified improvement property,” are not residential by statute; residential interior work does not become QIP just because it’s “interior.” Acceleration in rentals comes only from bona fide residential property and land improvements identified in a cost segregation for residential property.
Practical upshot: 2025 is unusually friendly to front-loading depreciation on rentals—if the fundamentals pencil first. Cost seg amplifies a good deal; it won’t rescue a bad one. So, read on about markets and what to look for if the tax break sounds appealing. (For a current, plain-English policy read, see Tax Foundation’s September analysis.) Tax Foundation

Part II —Where Value Lives in 2025 (and How to Find It)

Snapshot of what the statistic says about the national scene: “cooler,” not “crashed”
Listings & leverage. In August 2025, active listings +20.9% y/y; 60 days median DOM (+7 y/y); 20.3% price-cut share; list price $429,990 (0.0% y/y). The South/West cooled most; the Northeast/Midwest remain relatively tight. Realtor
Closings. Median sale price $443,462 (+1.4% y/y); homes sold –2.3% y/y; median DOM 43; “above-list” share down to 28.9%; price-drop share 22.5%. Redfin
Indices. FHFA HPI –0.2% m/m (SA) in May; +2.8% y/y—i.e., deceleration, not collapse.

Housing Cycles – is it still a long-duration asset?
Harvard’s State of the Nation’s Housing 2025 notes sales running at the lowest level since the mid-1990s, with insurance premiums and property taxes pressuring owners and renters. That’s a mature, affordability-constrained cycle—not a systemic breakdown. Meanwhile single-family housing starts slowed to 883,000 SAAR in June (–4.6% m/m), hardly a flood of supply.

The Internet screams “crash” because fear sells attention—here’s how to stay grounded
A massive headline experiment found each additional negative word increased click-through by 2.3%; moral-emotional words increase diffusion ~20% per word; and false news spreads “farther, faster, deeper, and more broadly” than true. None of that predicts prices; it explains why alarm tends to outperform nuance online. Your edge is to ignore the adrenaline and operate from metro-level data.

The Investor’s Field Checklist (use this before you write an offer)

A) What’s buyer leverage today? Check active listings, DOM, and price-cut share in your target metro. August baseline: inventory +20.9% y/y, median DOM 60, price cuts 20.3%; South/West generally offer more leverage than Northeast/Midwest right now. Realtor
B) What are actual closing prices doing? List prices are sticky; cross-check with closed-sale medians and contract activity. July U.S. medians: $443,462 (+1.4% y/y); homes sold –2.3% y/y—a slowdown, not a rout. If your metro diverges from this, underwrite accordingly. Redfin
C) Will supply slacken or swell next year? Scan permits/starts. National single-family 883,000 SAAR in June (–4.6% m/m). Local pipelines matter more than national headlines.
D) Are rents flat—and are concessions rising? Concessions can quietly erode yield. RealPage reports just over 14% of U.S. apartments offered concessions in August, with an average discount ~9.7%. Apartment List’s September report shows the national median rent down 0.2% m/m and 0.9% y/y. Build a rent line that survives free-month offers. RealPage+1
E) What’s the real expense line? Model property taxes (use state/county effective rates) and insurance (risk-adjusted for wind/flood/wildfire). If your cap rate is thin before those lines, it’s too thin.
F) Who’s moving there, and who’s hiring? Favor metros with net in-migration and resilient job bases. Redfin’s trackers highlight current inbound destinations; pair with local labor data.
G) Use tax acceleration as a tiebreaker, not a thesis. If the property pencils, a cost-segregation study can pull 5/7/15-year components forward for 100% bonus depreciation under H.R. 1 (for property acquired after Jan. 19, 2025; transitional election available). Confirm eligibility and basis with your CPA and the engineer; anchor in primary law and the IRS ATG. Congress.gov

Works Cited (MLA 9)

Angrisani, Marco, et al. “The Effect of Housing Wealth Losses on Spending in the Great Recession.” SSM—Population Health, 2018.
Brady, William J., et al. “Emotion Shapes the Diffusion of Moralized Content in Social Networks.” PNAS, vol. 114, no. 28, 2017, pp. 7313–7318.
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. “Ability-to-Repay/Qualified Mortgage Rule.” 22 Oct. 2021.
—. “Summary of the Ability-to-Repay and Qualified Mortgage Rule.” Jan. 2013.
Federal Housing Finance Agency. “FHFA House Price Index® Down 0.2 Percent in May; Up 2.8 Percent from Last Year.” 29 July 2025.
Federal Reserve History. “The Great Recession and Its Aftermath.”
Freddie Mac. “Mortgage Rates Continue to Decline.” News Release, 14 Aug. 2025. Freddie Mac
Freddie Mac. “Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS).” 11 Sept. 2025. Freddie Mac
Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. The State of the Nation’s Housing 2025. 2025.
Internal Revenue Service. Cost Segregation Audit Techniques Guide (Pub. 5653).
—. Publication 527: Residential Rental Property (2024).
Jones, Hannah. “Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Sept. 6.” Realtor.com, 11 Sept. 2025. Realtor
Mortgage Bankers Association. “Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey.” 10 Sept. 2025. MBA
O’Brien, Kim. “Big Apartment Markets with the Most Concessions in August.” RealPage Analytics, 9 Sept. 2025. RealPage
Apartment List Research. “National Rent Report.” 27 Aug. 2025. Apartment List
Redfin Data Center. “United States Housing Market & Prices.” Accessed 12 Sept. 2025. Redfin
Krimmel, Jake. “August 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report.” Realtor.com Research, 8 Sept. 2025. Realtor
Tax Foundation. “Property Taxes by State and County, 2025.” 4 Mar. 2025.
Tax Foundation. “One Big Beautiful Bill | Corporate Tax Changes.” 4 Sept. 2025. Tax Foundation
U.S. Census Bureau / HUD. “New Residential Construction: June 2025.” 18 July 2025.
United States, Congress. One Big Beautiful Bill Act, H.R. 1, 119th Cong., 2025. (See §70301 on §168(k) bonus depreciation; Public Law 119-21, July 4, 2025). Congress.gov

Why Fear-Heavy Videos Go Viral (and how to avoid getting whipsawed)
• Negativity boosts clicks: each added negative word raised CTR 2.3% in a 370-million-impression experiment.
• Moral-emotional language spreads faster: ~20% more diffusion per word.
• False news outruns truth: “farther, faster, deeper, and more broadly.”
What to do: Anchor to metro data (inventory, DOM, price cuts, closings), pipelines (permits/starts), operating costs (tax/insurance), and your own debt service. Then, if a cost-seg study legitimately identifies short-life assets, let 2025’s 100% bonus improve year-one cash flow—but only after the fundamentals clear your bar.

Three Things to Carry With You

  1. Slowed, not crashed. August’s numbers—inventory up, DOM longer, price cuts still common, prices roughly flat-to-slightly up—describe a market regaining balance, not free-fall. Realtor

  2. Structure beats storytelling. ATR/QM keeps credit disciplined; 100% bonus depreciation plus a defensible cost-seg can smooth year one, but they can’t rescue bad location or optimistic rent lines.

  3. Homes are used goods. People need shelter through cycles. There are no guarantees, but well-located, well-underwritten property tends to stay in demand even as markets ebb and flow. If we truly entered a nationwide housing crash, you’d likely see broader macro stress too—not just bargains.

Bipartisan Policy Center